Unemployment Benefit Claims

• After a positive surprise in last week’s Initial Claims data where claims fell to near 400k (408k after revision), they bounced back up to 418k this week, 8k higher than expected and the 15th week in a row above 400k.
• The 4 week average is at 422k vs 424k last week.
• Continuing Claims fell by 50k and were 7k below forecasts.
• Extended Benefits fell a net 133k.
• Emergency unemployment compensation in particular fell to the lowest since Aug ’09.

While we hope the drop in extended benefits is due to claimants finding jobs, there is no question the issue of benefits expiring before a job was found [is at play]. With respect to initial claims, they remain too stubbornly high and match the lackluster recovery.
---Boockvar